Tag Archives: Credit Risk

Collections & Recovery Collectors: Don’t Let IFRS 9 Blindfold You

IFRS 9 on blindfold
Aug302017

There’s a clear pecking order when it comes to the IFRS 9 accounting standard that goes into effect in January. It’s an accounting standard, not a piece of banking regulation, so the hierarchy is Finance, Risk and then Collections. This makes sense, but for debt managers it will cause problems. It’s likely that many debt managers will be blind next year on how they can influence impairments. Here’s how things will happen. Your Finance team will talk to your organization’s accounting firm and auditors, and they will agree how IFRS 9 should be implemented. They will probably work your Risk department when it comes to preparing the predictive models that are required to determine expected loss under IFRS 9. Once that’s done, the rules for your organization will be binding. It’s unlikely that the Collections team will be part of the process. And if you’re in Collections, you might think... [Read More]

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Analytics & Optimization Using Alternative Data in Credit Risk Modelling

Aug292017

“Whenever I bring up the topic of alternative data, the first question our board asks is, ‘Are we using Facebook data?’ “ This comment from a participant in our recent EMEA Risk Leadership Forum caused a lot of chuckles and nodding heads. When it comes to evaluating credit risk, everyone wants to know if, when and how lenders will start probing their Facebook account. For reasons that will be obvious to lenders, that tantalizing possibility doesn’t actually top the list of data sources to mine. In fact, at the forum we explored a few sources of data that can add to the picture of a consumer’s creditworthiness. Multiple Types of Alternative Data What is alternative data? In credit granting, it generally refers to any data that is not directly related to a consumer’s credit behavior. Traditional data usually means data from a credit bureau, a credit application or a lender’s... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance FICO Research: Student Loan Debt Explodes Across Age Ranges

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Aug232017

Student loan debt in the United States has reached about $1.34 trillion.  It’s greater than the aggregate of credit card debt.  But surprisingly, we haven’t seen much in-depth analysis about the spread of this debt burden across the expanse of ages within the U.S. population.  Our latest research reveals that, over the last 10 years: The percentage of middle-aged and older population carrying student loans has doubled The average balance on those student loans has grown 40% Middle-aged and older populations are having a harder time making their student loan payments on time Student loans aren’t just an issue for the younger generation. Increasingly, they are a problem suffered by Americans of all ages.  Let’s look at the numbers. Figure 1.  More People Have Student Loans  Age Percentage of Population with Student Loans 2006 Oct 2011 Oct 2016 Oct %△ 2016 over 2006 18-24  39% 46% 49% 25% 25-34  29%... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance US Average FICO Score Hits 700: A Milestone for Consumers

Jul102017

FICO regularly tracks the national FICO Score distribution as an important gauge of US consumer credit behavior. When I last blogged about this topic based on data from April 2016, the key takeaway was “the beat goes on.” US consumers continued to show improvement in managing their debts, which began shortly after the bottoming out of the economy in 2009-2010. We have pulled the latest FICO Score distribution information based on a snapshot of millions of US consumers’ credit data as of April 2017, and can report that consumer credit health and responsibility continue to be strong! For the first time since we’ve been tracking these stats, the average national FICO Score reached the 700 threshold — some 10 points above what it was just prior to the recession in October 2006. Let’s dig a little deeper by examining the score distribution over the past 10+ years. The movement in... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance FCA’s New Rules for UK Credit Line Increases

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Jun192017

My last two posts in this update on UK cards discussed the growth in unused credit and the rising delinquencies in New cards. Both of these posts discussed credit line increases, but there’s one more factor that could weigh heavily on issuers’ plans. The FCA is preparing to introduce new guidelines for credit cards that will impact line increases. It is anticipated that all new accounts will have to opt in for any offered increases, and this is expected to reduce the number of increases that take place. The approach for existing customers should remain as per today, where customers have to reject the offer. However, customers who display a sustained propensity to pay the minimum payment (on non-promotional balances) will either have to opt in or be excluded from increases. Customers showing signs of persistent debt (based on how much they have paid in fees and interest versus reducing their balance)... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance How Do FICO Scores Bounce Back After Negative Credit Info is Purged?

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Jun052017

In the depths of the Great Recession, tens of millions of consumers had lapses in meeting their credit obligations. Some seven years down the line, those missed payments are being purged from credit reports in accordance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and these consumers may now be looking at a clean (or at least cleaner) slate. To find out how the FICO® Scores of these consumers might be impacted by this negative information being purged, FICO conducted research on a random representative sample of the 28 million US consumers who had a serious delinquency (defined as 90 or more days past due) between 2009 and 2010. This sample was divided into two groups: Those who had a delinquency removed from their credit report between May 2016 and July 2016. We’ll refer to this group, which numbers about 6 million nationally, as the “delinquency purge” population. Those who did not... [Read More]

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