Tag Archives: Credit Risk

Risk & Compliance NBC News Probes Two Changes That Could Boost Credit Scores

NBC News Credit Scores Video - retro reporter image
Mar202017

NBC Nightly News recently aired coverage where they examined two changes that could boost credit scores for millions of US consumers. The news agency examined last year’s announcement of FICO® Score XD, aimed at the millions of US consumers who otherwise cannot receive a FICO® Score due to insufficient or stale data in traditional credit bureau files. NBC News discussed how the new score leverages alternative data, such as utilities payments and wireless and cable bill payment history, to determine credit scores. And starting July 1, the three major credit reporting agencies are dropping certain negative information from credit reports, including tax liens and civil judgments. NBC Nightly News shares FICO estimates that 12 million consumers will see their FICO® Scores increase – although, roughly 11 million of these consumers will see only a slight score increase of less than 20 points. View the NBC Nightly News video: Changes to Credit... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Do ‘Digital-Only Banks’ Have a Future in Asia?

Mar162017

Imagine a scenario where banks offer their services digitally; not as an ad hoc feature but as a fully integrated mobile experience. A digital-only bank that allows customers to do everything on their smartphones, from opening a new account to making payments, settling credit card bills to resolving disputes, all without having to go to a physical branch. If this vision sounds premature, then perhaps it’s time to update your view of what’s happening worldwide. This was the bold proposition offered by McKinsey & Company’s Sonia Barquin who presented at FICO’s Asia Pacific Chief Risk Officer Forum held this week in Thailand. Banks worldwide are fighting back against fintech start-ups looking to cut their lunch with low-cost banking offerings. Barquin pointed out that some global banks are developing digital-only offshoots while others are bringing the philosophy and business model to their main bank offering. Sonia encouraged the participants to be... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead? Part 2

Auto Lending Credit Trends #2
Feb282017

In my last blog post, I shared a new FICO research study on credit trends in auto lending. One key finding highlighted that the size of auto loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. So how are consumers affording these larger loans? It’s simple: consumers are ending up with longer terms for their car loans: While five-year loans were the most popular length of terms in 2009, there has been a swing towards opening six-year loans since then. Seven-year loan terms—while still rare at ~5% of all new loans—seem to be increasing in popularity as well. This trend towards more six-year loans occurred across all FICO® Scores. This shift may signal an increase in credit risk for the industry because six-year loans have historically had higher delinquency rates. However, confirming this requires some care in our analysis. The lingering effects of the recession, average age of the... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead?

Auto Lending Credit Trends
Feb222017

The gist of recent media coverage on the state of US auto lending can be summarized by the title of a recent New York Times article: As Auto Lending Rises, So Do Delinquencies. With this concern in mind, FICO recently conducted a research study to examine the credit quality of US consumers with auto loans, as well as other significant credit trends in auto lending. Our findings tell an interesting tale: Banks have been mildly decreasing their car loan underwriting standards. Overall indebtedness for many consumers has been declining since the Great Recession. The size of car loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. More consumers now have six-year auto loans instead of five-year loans, which were the previous standard. These six-year loans have higher delinquency rates, thus this shift to longer-term loans is likely to result in higher losses for US auto loans over the next... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance For Consumers Seeking Credit Scores, VantageScores Are No Substitute for FICO® Scores

Consumers + credit scores
Feb132017

Consumers today are being bombarded by offers to get their “credit scores” for free.  These lead generation websites don’t provide the FICO® Scores used by nearly all lenders – but some “experts” say that doesn’t matter.  In fact, some people claim that the VantageScores distributed to consumers through these websites are perfectly good approximations of the FICO® Scores used by lenders. The argument goes something like this: because multiple versions of the FICO® Score exist and are used by thousands of lenders, no single FICO® Score represents a consumer’s “credit score”.  It doesn’t matter whether a consumer receives a FICO® Score or VantageScore because they all work similarly: if you rank high on one score, you’ll rank high on another score, and all these scores move up and down together. This is simply not true, and new research confirms it. FICO has nine widely used versions of the FICO® Score... [Read More]

1 Comment

Risk & Compliance Financial Health: The Key to the Future of Customer Acquisition

Feb092017

For all the differences between traditional banks and new online lenders, there is one business challenge that unites both groups: acquiring new customers. Despite the advancements made by online lenders in many traditional financial services processes (such as account opening), the methods most online lenders use to advertise to and acquire new customers come straight out of the bank marketing playbook – third-party brokers, television ads, and even direct mail solicitations. While online lenders experiment with offline marketing tactics, banks are aggressively ramping up their online marketing efforts, with total digital ad spend by U.S. financial institutions predicted to top $10 billion in 2019 (up from $5.3 billion in 2013). This shift is being motivated by continuing declines in branch activity and the increasingly-evident risks of branch-based sales strategies. The result is that both groups are converging on a set of established acquisition techniques that are compatible with a post-branch... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Will FICO® Scores Determine the Super Bowl?

FICO Scores Super Bowl
Jan252017

Super Bowl fever is starting to build as Super Bowl Sunday approaches. As part of the lead-up to the game, there is a great deal of speculation and analysis (and non-stop media coverage!) on which team will take the title — the Atlanta Falcons or the New England Patriots. Of course, people are studying stats with obvious relevance to a victory: team performance during the season, comparison of team member “big game” experience and physical strengths/weaknesses, injuries, projected game-day weather conditions, etc. Other much less intuitive data points include the conference in which the team resides, distance travel to Super Bowl host city location, the intensity of the fan base, team colors, local food specialties, even team mascot. But what about FICO® Scores? Could they offer clues to the final score that determines next Sunday’s winner? For fun, we analyzed and compared several credit attributes for populations in the greater... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Medical Collections Rates Highest for Consumers Aged 24-46

Medical-Collections-by-Age
Jan112017

Since medical costs often increase as we age, one might expect that the rate at which medical bills are unpaid and then sent to collections companies would also increase with age – at least until age 65 when US citizens qualify for Medicare. New FICO research shows that not this not the case. Looking at credit bureau data as of July 2016, medical collections reporting – both paid and unpaid collections greater than $99 – breaks down by age as follows: While the peak of this curve occurs at age 27, the rate of consumers with medical collections is uniformly high for ages 24 to 46. Over a quarter of consumers in that age range have at least one such collection showing on their bureau report. After age 46, we see the rate slowly drop, and as expected, it drops substantially after age 65. Part of the issue stems from... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Risk & Compliance Improving Small Business Lending: Q&A with Ascentium

Jan052017

Ascentium Capital, an innovative commercial lender, wanted to expand its growing small business portfolio while keeping risk in check. I recently had the chance to speak with Chris Miller, VP of Decision Analytics at Ascentium, on how the company makes quick lending decisions for its small business customers. Please tell me a bit more about Ascentium Capital and what makes you unique? Chris: Ascentium is a commercial lender with a focus on equipment and technology leasing. We’ve grown in five years to have over $1.2 billion in assets and to be the third-largest private-independent finance company. We see ourselves as a small business lender working on making life easier for small business owners. We do that by making access to capital easier using our proprietary finance platform combined with exceptional service. Our basic premise is we can make an application decision in two hours, though it only takes about an... [Read More]

Leave a comment

Analytics & Optimization Top 10 of 2016: Our Blog Posts You Liked Best

Jan032017

With 2016 recently coming to a close, we took a look back to uncover which topics you – our blog readers – gravitated toward last year. Chief among your interests were analytic innovation, credit risk, regulatory compliance, customer experience and mobile payments. Here’s a recap of our top 10 most popular posts published in 2016: US Credit Quality Rising … The Beat Goes On – Ethan Dornhelm shares FICO research showing how US consumer credit quality continues to climb. Why Is Customer Experience So Hard to Explain? – For an organization to improve customer experience, here’s why everyone needs to start on the same page. 4 Analytic Predictions for 2017 – From Killer Devices to AI Hype – FICO Chief Analytics Officer Scott Zoldi shares his predictions for analytics trends and burning issues in 2017. Your Customer Experience Management Is SO Immature! – Roughly 80% of companies are customer experience... [Read More]

Leave a comment