Tag Archives: Credit Risk

Collections & Recovery Collectors: Don’t Let IFRS 9 Blindfold You

IFRS 9 on blindfold
Aug302017

There’s a clear pecking order when it comes to the IFRS 9 accounting standard that goes into effect in January. It’s an accounting standard, not a piece of banking regulation, so the hierarchy is Finance, Risk and then Collections. This makes sense, but for debt managers it will cause problems. It’s likely that many debt managers will be blind next year on how they can influence impairments. Here’s how things will happen. Your Finance team will talk to your organization’s accounting firm and auditors, and they will agree how IFRS 9 should be implemented. They will probably work your Risk department when it comes to preparing the predictive models that are required to determine expected loss under IFRS 9. Once that’s done, the rules for your organization will be binding. It’s unlikely that the Collections team will be part of the process. And if you’re in Collections, you might think... [Read More]

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Analytics & Optimization Using Alternative Data in Credit Risk Modelling

Aug292017

“Whenever I bring up the topic of alternative data, the first question our board asks is, ‘Are we using Facebook data?’ “ This comment from a participant in our recent EMEA Risk Leadership Forum caused a lot of chuckles and nodding heads. When it comes to evaluating credit risk, everyone wants to know if, when and how lenders will start probing their Facebook account. For reasons that will be obvious to lenders, that tantalizing possibility doesn’t actually top the list of data sources to mine. In fact, at the forum we explored a few sources of data that can add to the picture of a consumer’s creditworthiness. Multiple Types of Alternative Data What is alternative data? In credit granting, it generally refers to any data that is not directly related to a consumer’s credit behavior. Traditional data usually means data from a credit bureau, a credit application or a lender’s... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance FICO Research: Student Loan Debt Explodes Across Age Ranges

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Aug232017

Student loan debt in the United States has reached about $1.34 trillion.  It’s greater than the aggregate of credit card debt.  But surprisingly, we haven’t seen much in-depth analysis about the spread of this debt burden across the expanse of ages within the U.S. population.  Our latest research reveals that, over the last 10 years: The percentage of middle-aged and older population carrying student loans has doubled The average balance on those student loans has grown 40% Middle-aged and older populations are having a harder time making their student loan payments on time Student loans aren’t just an issue for the younger generation. Increasingly, they are a problem suffered by Americans of all ages.  Let’s look at the numbers. Figure 1.  More People Have Student Loans  Age Percentage of Population with Student Loans 2006 Oct 2011 Oct 2016 Oct %△ 2016 over 2006 18-24  39% 46% 49% 25% 25-34  29%... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance US Average FICO Score Hits 700: A Milestone for Consumers

Jul102017

FICO regularly tracks the national FICO Score distribution as an important gauge of US consumer credit behavior. When I last blogged about this topic based on data from April 2016, the key takeaway was “the beat goes on.” US consumers continued to show improvement in managing their debts, which began shortly after the bottoming out of the economy in 2009-2010. We have pulled the latest FICO Score distribution information based on a snapshot of millions of US consumers’ credit data as of April 2017, and can report that consumer credit health and responsibility continue to be strong! For the first time since we’ve been tracking these stats, the average national FICO Score reached the 700 threshold — some 10 points above what it was just prior to the recession in October 2006. Let’s dig a little deeper by examining the score distribution over the past 10+ years. The movement in... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance FCA’s New Rules for UK Credit Line Increases

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Jun192017

My last two posts in this update on UK cards discussed the growth in unused credit and the rising delinquencies in New cards. Both of these posts discussed credit line increases, but there’s one more factor that could weigh heavily on issuers’ plans. The FCA is preparing to introduce new guidelines for credit cards that will impact line increases. It is anticipated that all new accounts will have to opt in for any offered increases, and this is expected to reduce the number of increases that take place. The approach for existing customers should remain as per today, where customers have to reject the offer. However, customers who display a sustained propensity to pay the minimum payment (on non-promotional balances) will either have to opt in or be excluded from increases. Customers showing signs of persistent debt (based on how much they have paid in fees and interest versus reducing their balance)... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance How Do FICO Scores Bounce Back After Negative Credit Info is Purged?

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Jun052017

In the depths of the Great Recession, tens of millions of consumers had lapses in meeting their credit obligations. Some seven years down the line, those missed payments are being purged from credit reports in accordance with the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and these consumers may now be looking at a clean (or at least cleaner) slate. To find out how the FICO® Scores of these consumers might be impacted by this negative information being purged, FICO conducted research on a random representative sample of the 28 million US consumers who had a serious delinquency (defined as 90 or more days past due) between 2009 and 2010. This sample was divided into two groups: Those who had a delinquency removed from their credit report between May 2016 and July 2016. We’ll refer to this group, which numbers about 6 million nationally, as the “delinquency purge” population. Those who did not... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Video: Scotiabank Cencosud Cuts Model Development Times by +50%

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Apr192017

Ever wonder how one of Chile’s largest retailers retains over 3 million customers? We asked Scotiabank Cencosud’s Claudia Guerrero, Model Development Manager of Risk Management in its Retail Finance division. In this Cencosud video, Claudia discusses how the retailer relies on a comprehensive, integrated credit portfolio management solution developed by FICO. This enables it to make better customer decisions, from originations through customer management. In particular, FICO® TRIAD® Customer Manager successfully manages risk-based strategies for credit line increases and cross-selling, and FICO® Model Builder has helped Scotiabank Cencosud cut model development times in half, while still retaining predictive strength — which the company sees as a tremendous competitive advantage. For more information, read the Cencosud case study or visit the FICO Model Management and Compliance solution page.

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Risk & Compliance Examining the Credit Cycle: Is This as Good as it Gets?

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Apr132017

More than 70 straight months of US job growth, the official unemployment rate down below 5%, and average hourly earnings growing at a seven-year high of 2.9%. Signs of approaching full employment finally allowed the Fed to see enough stability to inch up rates without being seemingly blown off course by events elsewhere. There will be more rate hikes to come if the economy stays on this course, and in the event the deficits grow, it will pretty much guarantee what we already expect on the interest rate front. With all this in mind, it’s a good time to ask: Has the US credit cycle reached the top? Is it as good as it gets? Of course, we never know that for sure. This is all opinion (some would say speculation), especially on the economic policy front. But you have to feel that if it isn’t the top we are... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Afraid of Small Business Lending? Mid-Market Lenders Shouldn’t Be

Small Business Lending for Mid-Market
Apr052017

Some 500,000 – 600,000 new small businesses emerge each year, according to recent U.S. Census Bureau data, and they supply over 60% of jobs. While we’ve expected that number to grow and fuel the economy, it is starting to decrease according to recent reports by TIME and CNN Money. Is small business growth slowing due to lack of innovation and initiative? That seems unlikely. According to a survey done by Insureon, 82% of small businesses expect to grow in 2017. Whether buying new equipment or furniture, hiring, moving, or adding products/services, businesses are planning to expand. So what’s really standing in the way? FICO’s mid-market bank and credit union clients tell us that it remains difficult for entrepreneurs and small business owners to acquire the credit they need to fuel their growth plans. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, there is often little traditional commercial credit history available on... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Millennials and Credit: Are We Missing the Real Story?

Millenials and Credit - I'm a Millennial Nametag
Apr042017

Our fascination with millennials and their like or dislike of credit continues to occupy its fair share of column inches – so much so that a while back I decided to take a look for myself. I shared results of that study in a prior blog post, where I revealed that millennial credit habits don’t look too different, at least directionally, from the rest of the population. Here’s what I found: Compared with 10 years ago, today’s 18-24 year olds have lower credit and store card balances, and while they have more auto loans, the value of these loans did not grow as much as inflation would suggest. By contrast, growth in student loan debts outpaced inflation, being both greater in number as well as balances; this undoubtedly creates a drag on capacity for other forms of consumer credit. Subsequently, I also looked at the 25-34 year age band, and... [Read More]

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