Tag Archives: Risk Management

Risk & Compliance Video: Scotiabank Cencosud Cuts Model Development Times by +50%

Cencosud video interview image
Apr192017

Ever wonder how one of Chile’s largest retailers retains over 3 million customers? We asked Scotiabank Cencosud’s Claudia Guerrero, Model Development Manager of Risk Management in its Retail Finance division. In this Cencosud video, Claudia discusses how the retailer relies on a comprehensive, integrated credit portfolio management solution developed by FICO. This enables it to make better customer decisions, from originations through customer management. In particular, FICO® TRIAD® Customer Manager successfully manages risk-based strategies for credit line increases and cross-selling, and FICO® Model Builder has helped Scotiabank Cencosud cut model development times in half, while still retaining predictive strength — which the company sees as a tremendous competitive advantage. For more information, read the Cencosud case study or visit the FICO Model Management and Compliance solution page.

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Risk & Compliance Examining the Credit Cycle: Is This as Good as it Gets?

Credit-Cycle-Abstract-Featured-Image
Apr132017

More than 70 straight months of US job growth, the official unemployment rate down below 5%, and average hourly earnings growing at a seven-year high of 2.9%. Signs of approaching full employment finally allowed the Fed to see enough stability to inch up rates without being seemingly blown off course by events elsewhere. There will be more rate hikes to come if the economy stays on this course, and in the event the deficits grow, it will pretty much guarantee what we already expect on the interest rate front. With all this in mind, it’s a good time to ask: Has the US credit cycle reached the top? Is it as good as it gets? Of course, we never know that for sure. This is all opinion (some would say speculation), especially on the economic policy front. But you have to feel that if it isn’t the top we are... [Read More]

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Collections & Recovery Three Top Regulatory Themes Emerge from Debt Collection Panel

Three Regulatory Themes
Apr102017

I recently moderated a regulatory panel discussion before a group of nearly 100 collections and recovery (C&R) professionals at the FICO® Debt Manager™ User Group Forum. The esteemed panel consisted of a mix of veteran policy and business leaders, including: Maria Wolvin, Vice President and Senior Counsel of Regulatory Affairs at ACA International; Terry Collins, Collections and Recovery Manager at Trustmark National Bank; and Lucia Lebens, Vice President of Government Relations and Public Policy at Navient. Much of the discussion focused on what C&R professionals can expect in the new US regulatory environment that has emerged in the wake of the November elections. While our experts spoke on a number of hot-button topics, three main themes emerged. CFPB Debt Collection Rulemaking Will Likely Move Forward The panel discussed the CFPB’s continued focus on developing new debt collection regulations. The CFPB has indicated that its next pre-rule action will be the... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Afraid of Small Business Lending? Mid-Market Lenders Shouldn’t Be

Small Business Lending for Mid-Market
Apr052017

Some 500,000 – 600,000 new small businesses emerge each year, according to recent U.S. Census Bureau data, and they supply over 60% of jobs. While we’ve expected that number to grow and fuel the economy, it is starting to decrease according to recent reports by TIME and CNN Money. Is small business growth slowing due to lack of innovation and initiative? That seems unlikely. According to a survey done by Insureon, 82% of small businesses expect to grow in 2017. Whether buying new equipment or furniture, hiring, moving, or adding products/services, businesses are planning to expand. So what’s really standing in the way? FICO’s mid-market bank and credit union clients tell us that it remains difficult for entrepreneurs and small business owners to acquire the credit they need to fuel their growth plans. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, there is often little traditional commercial credit history available on... [Read More]

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Collections & Recovery IFRS 9 and Collections – The 31-Day Time Bomb

IFRS 9 as digital clock display
Apr052017

IFRS 9 may just be a new accounting standard, but accountants aren’t the only people scrambling to meet the January 2018 deadline. If you’re involved with consumer debt in any way, this regulation is going to change your world. (Unless, of course, you’re in the US – the name of the game for you will be CECL.) I recently presented a webinar on how IFRS 9 will impact collections, and in this post I’ll share two changes that will have a massive impact on everyone in debt collection, from in-house collectors to DCAs to debt purchasers. At 31 Days, Everything Changes When accounts roll from Stage 1 (low risk) to Stage 2 (impaired risk), it’s a big deal. 31 days is a hard trigger that sends an account from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Impairment for Stage 1 accounts is 12-month expected credit losses. Impairment for Stage 2 and 3 accounts... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Millennials and Credit: Are We Missing the Real Story?

Millenials and Credit - I'm a Millennial Nametag
Apr042017

Our fascination with millennials and their like or dislike of credit continues to occupy its fair share of column inches – so much so that a while back I decided to take a look for myself. I shared results of that study in a prior blog post, where I revealed that millennial credit habits don’t look too different, at least directionally, from the rest of the population. Here’s what I found: Compared with 10 years ago, today’s 18-24 year olds have lower credit and store card balances, and while they have more auto loans, the value of these loans did not grow as much as inflation would suggest. By contrast, growth in student loan debts outpaced inflation, being both greater in number as well as balances; this undoubtedly creates a drag on capacity for other forms of consumer credit. Subsequently, I also looked at the 25-34 year age band, and... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance How to Rate Trade Credit Risk – Without Much Data

Darth Vader meme: I Find Your Lack of Data...Disturbing
Mar282017

Allowing people or businesses to pay for things on credit is an ancient practice, and just as ancient is the dilemma: How can you tell if they will pay you back? We know how this works when lending to individuals, but sometimes granting trade credit is trickier. I recently went to visit a new FICO client who are involved in the bunkering industry. Bunkering is the business of providing fuel to shipping, and our client offers credit lines to cruise lines, oil firms and any company that needs to fill up its large vessels with black gold and all its refined derivatives. Like any other institution that offers trade credit (typical firms will pay a bunkering firm within 30 days for the fuel it has purchased), they have a bad debt problem, which is particularly important in an industry with small margins. Although some bunkering firms have turnovers well into... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead? Part 2

Auto Lending Credit Trends #2
Feb282017

In my last blog post, I shared a new FICO research study on credit trends in auto lending. One key finding highlighted that the size of auto loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. So how are consumers affording these larger loans? It’s simple: consumers are ending up with longer terms for their car loans: While five-year loans were the most popular length of terms in 2009, there has been a swing towards opening six-year loans since then. Seven-year loan terms—while still rare at ~5% of all new loans—seem to be increasing in popularity as well. This trend towards more six-year loans occurred across all FICO® Scores. This shift may signal an increase in credit risk for the industry because six-year loans have historically had higher delinquency rates. However, confirming this requires some care in our analysis. The lingering effects of the recession, average age of the... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead?

Auto Lending Credit Trends
Feb222017

The gist of recent media coverage on the state of US auto lending can be summarized by the title of a recent New York Times article: As Auto Lending Rises, So Do Delinquencies. With this concern in mind, FICO recently conducted a research study to examine the credit quality of US consumers with auto loans, as well as other significant credit trends in auto lending. Our findings tell an interesting tale: Banks have been mildly decreasing their car loan underwriting standards. Overall indebtedness for many consumers has been declining since the Great Recession. The size of car loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. More consumers now have six-year auto loans instead of five-year loans, which were the previous standard. These six-year loans have higher delinquency rates, thus this shift to longer-term loans is likely to result in higher losses for US auto loans over the next... [Read More]

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Fraud & Security Report from RSA: Bangers, Mash, Security and OpportUNITY

Feb162017

The RSA Conference has descended upon San Francisco’s Moscone Center, bigger and more energizing than ever. With security an agenda-topping concern of many CIOs in 2017, the fervor to fight cybercrime is at an all-time high. While there was a wide range of top-of-mind topics being discussed, two topics in particular continued to show growing interest – artificial intelligence and cyber insurance. More on that in a minute. The theme of this year’s RSA Conference was “The power of opportUNITY,” and we had plenty of opportunities in San Francisco to showcase FICO’s unity with security professionals and industry influencers on similar missions. Two of these events took place in informal settings designed to encourage networking and dialogue: The Cyber+IoT Bangers and Mash Roundtable Breakfast, held on Tuesday morning in conjunction with the San Diego industry organization CyberTECH. This panel session focused on “Securing the Smart City” and featured guests such... [Read More]

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