Tag Archives: Risk Management

Risk & Compliance Don’t Let “Averages” Mess Up Your IFRS 9 Impact Forecasts

IFRS 9 as digital clock display
May292017

The clock is ticking on IFRS 9 compliance. Preparing for Day 1 IFRS 9 impacts before models are fully built, tested and validated is a bit like preparing for a scheduled car crash: You know the event is going to happen and you know it will be expensive and painful, but you don’t yet know the exact amount of damage. It is tempting to seek comfort in averages from industry benchmarks or surveys. But just as you would never apply the brakes of your car during heavy rain based on the average stopping distance of an average car in average weather conditions, neither should you plan for your business’s IFRS 9 impacts based on average industry impacts alone. Don’t Go by Published Numbers A few widely published, well-intended surveys have attempted to prepare affected organisations for this event by providing estimated ranges and averages in respect of key impact measures.... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance NCAP Public Record Removals Have Little Impact to FICO Scores

May172017

The National Consumer Assistance Plan (NCAP) is a comprehensive series of initiatives intended to evaluate the accuracy of credit reports, the process of dealing with credit information, and consumer transparency. As a result of NCAP, in July 2017, the three credit reporting agencies (CRAs) are scheduled to make required changes to the criteria used to accept the reporting of a tax lien and/or civil judgment. It is anticipated that civil judgments and some tax liens will be removed from consumer reporting agency (CRA) data when this goes into effect, including previously reported tax liens and/or civil judgments that do not meet the new NCAP-related reporting requirements.  All credit scores that utilize CRA data will be impacted, including but not limited to FICO® Scores. FICO recently conducted research on the most widely used FICO® Score versions at all three CRAs to assess the impact of the NCAP-driven removal of public records... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Video: Scotiabank Cencosud Cuts Model Development Times by +50%

Cencosud video interview image
Apr192017

Ever wonder how one of Chile’s largest retailers retains over 3 million customers? We asked Scotiabank Cencosud’s Claudia Guerrero, Model Development Manager of Risk Management in its Retail Finance division. In this Cencosud video, Claudia discusses how the retailer relies on a comprehensive, integrated credit portfolio management solution developed by FICO. This enables it to make better customer decisions, from originations through customer management. In particular, FICO® TRIAD® Customer Manager successfully manages risk-based strategies for credit line increases and cross-selling, and FICO® Model Builder has helped Scotiabank Cencosud cut model development times in half, while still retaining predictive strength — which the company sees as a tremendous competitive advantage. For more information, read the Cencosud case study or visit the FICO Model Management and Compliance solution page.

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Risk & Compliance Examining the Credit Cycle: Is This as Good as it Gets?

Credit-Cycle-Abstract-Featured-Image
Apr132017

More than 70 straight months of US job growth, the official unemployment rate down below 5%, and average hourly earnings growing at a seven-year high of 2.9%. Signs of approaching full employment finally allowed the Fed to see enough stability to inch up rates without being seemingly blown off course by events elsewhere. There will be more rate hikes to come if the economy stays on this course, and in the event the deficits grow, it will pretty much guarantee what we already expect on the interest rate front. With all this in mind, it’s a good time to ask: Has the US credit cycle reached the top? Is it as good as it gets? Of course, we never know that for sure. This is all opinion (some would say speculation), especially on the economic policy front. But you have to feel that if it isn’t the top we are... [Read More]

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Collections & Recovery Three Top Regulatory Themes Emerge from Debt Collection Panel

Three Regulatory Themes
Apr102017

I recently moderated a regulatory panel discussion before a group of nearly 100 collections and recovery (C&R) professionals at the FICO® Debt Manager™ User Group Forum. The esteemed panel consisted of a mix of veteran policy and business leaders, including: Maria Wolvin, Vice President and Senior Counsel of Regulatory Affairs at ACA International; Terry Collins, Collections and Recovery Manager at Trustmark National Bank; and Lucia Lebens, Vice President of Government Relations and Public Policy at Navient. Much of the discussion focused on what C&R professionals can expect in the new US regulatory environment that has emerged in the wake of the November elections. While our experts spoke on a number of hot-button topics, three main themes emerged. CFPB Debt Collection Rulemaking Will Likely Move Forward The panel discussed the CFPB’s continued focus on developing new debt collection regulations. The CFPB has indicated that its next pre-rule action will be the... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Afraid of Small Business Lending? Mid-Market Lenders Shouldn’t Be

Small Business Lending for Mid-Market
Apr052017

Some 500,000 – 600,000 new small businesses emerge each year, according to recent U.S. Census Bureau data, and they supply over 60% of jobs. While we’ve expected that number to grow and fuel the economy, it is starting to decrease according to recent reports by TIME and CNN Money. Is small business growth slowing due to lack of innovation and initiative? That seems unlikely. According to a survey done by Insureon, 82% of small businesses expect to grow in 2017. Whether buying new equipment or furniture, hiring, moving, or adding products/services, businesses are planning to expand. So what’s really standing in the way? FICO’s mid-market bank and credit union clients tell us that it remains difficult for entrepreneurs and small business owners to acquire the credit they need to fuel their growth plans. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, there is often little traditional commercial credit history available on... [Read More]

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Collections & Recovery IFRS 9 and Collections – The 31-Day Time Bomb

IFRS 9 as digital clock display
Apr052017

IFRS 9 may just be a new accounting standard, but accountants aren’t the only people scrambling to meet the January 2018 deadline. If you’re involved with consumer debt in any way, this regulation is going to change your world. (Unless, of course, you’re in the US – the name of the game for you will be CECL.) I recently presented a webinar on how IFRS 9 will impact collections, and in this post I’ll share two changes that will have a massive impact on everyone in debt collection, from in-house collectors to DCAs to debt purchasers. At 31 Days, Everything Changes When accounts roll from Stage 1 (low risk) to Stage 2 (impaired risk), it’s a big deal. 31 days is a hard trigger that sends an account from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Impairment for Stage 1 accounts is 12-month expected credit losses. Impairment for Stage 2 and 3 accounts... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Millennials and Credit: Are We Missing the Real Story?

Millenials and Credit - I'm a Millennial Nametag
Apr042017

Our fascination with millennials and their like or dislike of credit continues to occupy its fair share of column inches – so much so that a while back I decided to take a look for myself. I shared results of that study in a prior blog post, where I revealed that millennial credit habits don’t look too different, at least directionally, from the rest of the population. Here’s what I found: Compared with 10 years ago, today’s 18-24 year olds have lower credit and store card balances, and while they have more auto loans, the value of these loans did not grow as much as inflation would suggest. By contrast, growth in student loan debts outpaced inflation, being both greater in number as well as balances; this undoubtedly creates a drag on capacity for other forms of consumer credit. Subsequently, I also looked at the 25-34 year age band, and... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance How to Rate Trade Credit Risk – Without Much Data

Darth Vader meme: I Find Your Lack of Data...Disturbing
Mar282017

Allowing people or businesses to pay for things on credit is an ancient practice, and just as ancient is the dilemma: How can you tell if they will pay you back? We know how this works when lending to individuals, but sometimes granting trade credit is trickier. I recently went to visit a new FICO client who are involved in the bunkering industry. Bunkering is the business of providing fuel to shipping, and our client offers credit lines to cruise lines, oil firms and any company that needs to fill up its large vessels with black gold and all its refined derivatives. Like any other institution that offers trade credit (typical firms will pay a bunkering firm within 30 days for the fuel it has purchased), they have a bad debt problem, which is particularly important in an industry with small margins. Although some bunkering firms have turnovers well into... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead? Part 2

Auto Lending Credit Trends #2
Feb282017

In my last blog post, I shared a new FICO research study on credit trends in auto lending. One key finding highlighted that the size of auto loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. So how are consumers affording these larger loans? It’s simple: consumers are ending up with longer terms for their car loans: While five-year loans were the most popular length of terms in 2009, there has been a swing towards opening six-year loans since then. Seven-year loan terms—while still rare at ~5% of all new loans—seem to be increasing in popularity as well. This trend towards more six-year loans occurred across all FICO® Scores. This shift may signal an increase in credit risk for the industry because six-year loans have historically had higher delinquency rates. However, confirming this requires some care in our analysis. The lingering effects of the recession, average age of the... [Read More]

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