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Global concerns impacting U.S. economy

In my last post, I shared the results of our quarterly survey of U.S. bankers that showed serious concerns about delinquencies on student loans, mortgages and credit cards.  In that same survey, we asked about global issues that could put pressure on the U.S. economic recovery.

When asked about the most likely trigger for a possible double dip in the U.S. economy, the Eurozone debt crisis was cited most often (38.8%), just edging out U.S. government policies (38.4%).  Another 19% of bankers were most concerned about the lack of spending and investment by U.S. companies.

However, it’s important to note that nearly 60% of the bankers we polled believe that a U.S. recession in 2012 is unlikely.  So we shouldn’t interpret these results as an indication that your peers are expecting the economy to fall apart this year.  But it is quite interesting to see what worries them.

Another noteworthy survey result dealt with China.  Survey respondents were asked about the economic growth of China as it relates to the future strength of U.S. consumers.  Over 72% of respondents felt that the global influence of Chinese consumers has either overtaken that of U.S. consumers or will do so within 5-10 years.  By contrast, 28% felt that U.S. consumers would continue to wield more influence for another 20 years or longer. (My colleague Dan McConaghy shared an interesting perspective on this issue previously on the blog.)

Whether it’s debt trouble in Europe or economic growth in Asia, there are significant implications for the near-term and long-term strength and health of the U.S. economy.  Without trying to preach to the choir, I think these survey results explain why so many of you and your peers are embracing analytics.  Predictive analytics are vital to making sense of all the risks, challenges and opportunities in our increasingly complex and interconnected global environment.

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