Slow EMV Conversion Invites Fraudsters to Self-Serve at Gas Stations
By leveraging machine learning, the FICO Falcon can help to capture the latest scams and frauds.
With an October 1, 2020 deadline to have EMV chip card readers installed on the nation’s 1 million fuel dispensing pumps, the number that remain to be converted could be as high as 75%, industry experts say. The prevalence of magnetic-stripe readers, coupled with road-tripping Americans’ out-of-pattern spending behaviors, creates a perfect storm for fraudsters to use purloined cardholder details to commit fraudulent purchases at unattended terminals. The good news is that FICO is on it—by leveraging machine learning, the FICO® Falcon Fraud Platform is able to capture the latest fraud trends and transform raw data into actionable insights.
Gas stations are a hotbed for fraud
Since the mid-1980s, gas stations across the country have been transitioning to unattended, pay-at-the-pump systems to reduce costs and facilitate the consumer’s ability to fuel their vehicle. While convenient for customers, unattended pumps make it easier for use fraudsters use compromised cardholder information (available in plentiful supply on the Dark Web) to make fraudulent purchases.
Since legitimate cardholders visit 10% new merchants every month, fraudsters work to mix their transactions among these new legitimate transactions. Fraudsters’ transactions join the myriad legitimate unattended gas transactions occurring each day, adding to the ever-increasing complexity in identifying these transactions as fraudulent.
Data from the FICO® Falcon® Intelligence Network verifies that fraudsters are taking advantage of the opportunity unattended gas stations present; the national rate of fraudulent transactions originating at US-based unattended gas stations rose about 30% from October 2017 through October 2018.

How FICO pinpoints fraudulent fuel transactions
Machine learning technology enhances the FICO® Falcon Fraud Platform, allowing it to assess the breadth of consumer and geographic behaviors and dynamically update the signals that denote fraudulent cardholder activity. As a result, Falcon can proactively increase fraud detection while simultaneously decreasing the false-positive rate.
For example, let’s say there’s a flurry of cardholder activity in a new state. As one-off events, sporadic interstate transactions may be indicative of a compromised account used by a fraudster driving around the country. They may also be indicative of something far more benign, such as a cardholder visiting potential out-of-state universities with their family member. In isolation one may reasonably pin these transactions as fraudulent, but if the cardholder has been legitimately transacting in other new geographies, a pattern may emerge that suggests this new set of transactions as legitimate behavior. Falcon is able to tap into eclectic sets of historical cardholder behaviors to detect subtle, and not so subtle, changes in how consumers choose to transact.
Data from the FICO® Falcon® Intelligence Network illustrates the variability in unattended gas fraud across the US. Nevada, Florida and Michigan have the highest unattended gas fraud rates, while the lowest are in New Hampshire, Alaska and Maine.

Highest 3 fraud rate states: Nevada, Florida, Michigan
Lowest 3 fraud rate states: New Hampshire, Alaska, Maine
FICO offers comprehensive protection
Card skimmers also present an inherent risk of transacting at pay-at-the-pump terminals. These illegal card readers are installed by fraudsters with the intent to steal cardholder information, to then be sold or used for their own nefarious means. With thousands of skimmers found at gas stations across the US over the past few years, it is impossible for consumers to completely protect themselves. Fortunately, FICO® Card Compromise Manager, a powerful companion to the FICO® Falcon Fraud Platform, will mitigate the number of cards that may be affected by a compromised terminal.
Leveraging the Falcon Intelligence Network, Card Compromise Manager detects a point-of-compromise, alerting the respective fraud prevention teams that cards who have transacted at the terminal may themselves be compromised. This allows fraud prevention teams to proactively assist affected cardholders by blocking and reissuing their cards, placing them on watchlists, or using additional monitoring strategies to prevent further fraud.
As gas station owners race to meet the October 1, 2020 deadline to install EMV chip readers, one thing is certain: fraudsters will find new ways to commit their crimes—and FICO will be committed to detecting them.
For more of my thoughts on fraud, machine learning, artificial intelligence, follow me on Twitter @ScottZoldi.
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<p>FICO’s latest research on <a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/us-credit-quality-rising-the-beat-goes-on/" target="_blank">national FICO® Score distribution</a> shows that US credit quality continues to trend upwards, with an increasing number of consumers scoring in the highest scores ranges. Given that, we decided it was time to refresh our study on “<a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/infographic-what-does-a-high-credit-scorer-look-like/" target="_blank">FICO® Score high achievers</a>,” where we examine the credit behavioural profiles of consumers with higher credit scores.</p> <p>As expected, our latest study showed that older people generally have higher scores, as has been the case in our <a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/age-before-beauty-credit-worthiness-before-youth/" target="_blank">past research</a>. This is largely because they have trade lines that have been open longer, which leads to higher scores (assuming the trade lines are in good standing and all other things equal). The most credit savvy among you will remember that length of credit history accounts for roughly 15% of the overall <a href="http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/WhatsInYourScore.aspx" target="_blank">FICO® Score calculation</a>.</p> <p>But for younger consumers, it isn’t too helpful to say, “just wait until you are 50 years old, and that will fix things!” Thus, I decided to dive deeper with our analysis, including looking at the credit behavioural characteristics of younger consumers with high FICO® Scores.</p> <p>In this analysis, I looked at credit characteristics for the two highest score bands, 750-799 and 800-850, which have about 16% and 23% of the population, respectively. I further broke this down by looking at the characteristics of the youngest 15% in each group, which occurs at age 29 for the 750-799 group and 43 for the 800-850. We used FICO<strong>®</strong> Score 9 for our analysis, and examined typical variables of the categories that go into the make-up of the score.</p> <p><a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FICO-Score-High-Achiever-table.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-29367" src="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FICO-Score-High-Achiever-table.png" alt="fico-score-high-achiever-table" width="715" height="747" /></a></p> <p>Since there’s a lot to dissect in this chart, I’ll highlight a few findings that struck me: <ul> <li><strong>Credit history.</strong> Higher scores are undoubtedly associated with a longer time on file. What’s striking is the higher average time on file for the 800+ group, both overall and for revolving accounts (the most common trade line). Clearly, it helps to start credit use early in life – but that’s not the sole determining factor for high scoring. The younger cohorts in both the 800+ and 750-799 groups have time on file medians significantly less than their older counterparts.</li> <li><strong>New credit.</strong> High credit scorers do, in fact, pursue new credit. We see little variation in months since last trade line opening and last inquiry among all groups observed.</li> <li><strong>Pay on time.</strong> As you might expect, the further in the past the delinquency, the higher the score – and that’s <u>if</u> a delinquency ever happened. 95% of the 800+ people and 72% of the 750-799 group have never been delinquent, which is a striking contrast to the 57% for the total population. The percentages for the younger groups are even higher, especially so for the 750-799ers. Collection items are also scarce for these high scorers. While 23% of the national population have collection items greater than $99, the figures are only 0.5% for the 800+ group and 3% for the 750-799 group. It is clear that, in conjunction with starting a credit file early, paying on time is a key trait of the FICO® Score high achiever.</li> <li><strong>Balance and utilization.</strong> Finally, we look at how credit is being used, focusing on revolving product use. (Since most people only have one mortgage or one auto loan, variation in instalment product figures is minimal and driven by payment history, which is near perfect for high scorers, as we’ve seen.) FICO® Score high achievers tend to have more open revolving accounts. While the % active trades and utilization are generally lower, by no means do high scorers avoid the use of credit products. What drives the difference here is the amount of <u>available</u> revolving credit utilized. The 800+ group is roughly 1/4 of the national median, both in total and on their highest utilized card; they also have lower balances and more cards<em>. </em>The 750-799 group is more active and higher utilized, but still only at 2/3 of the national figures. The young 750-799 group compensate with lower revolving balances and, as a result, lower utilization, which is in line with what we see for the 800+ group.</li> <li><strong>Benchmarks.</strong> I’d like to point out that while this study provides good benchmarks of the typical credit traits of the FICO® Score high achiever, individual credit profiles will vary widely. And keep in mind that when we sort groups of consumers as a whole by different behaviours, some results may look superficially odd. For example, the 800+ band has a longer median average open account time (128 months) than average revolving months on file (140 months).</li> </ul> So, what do we conclude? A huge takeaway is that high scorers don’t have too much in the way of serious delinquencies and negative public record data.</p> <p>In most respects, the young 800+ people are like their peer group. They really only differ markedly in their shorter credit history and higher non-mortgage balance, both of which are a function of life stage. Our results show that you don’t have to be a credit product hermit; these high scorers have more credit cards. The takeaway is to start credit activity early and maintain well-managed and moderate usage.</p> <p>In many ways, the young 750-799 people are more interesting because their age profile is much younger. Their credit characteristics differ more from their peer group, particularly in terms of length of credit history. They compensate by having almost pristine credit records and lower balances.</p> <p>Ultimately, 39% of US consumers are FICO® Score high achievers, which they accomplish by following common-sense credit practices. It ain’t rocket science!</p>
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