Tag Archives: Credit Trends

Risk & Compliance U.S. Credit Scoring Trends to Watch in 2019

Feb252019

After a 2018 that had its highs and lows, what might 2019 have in store from a credit risk management standpoint?  Here are four key developments in credit scoring that we will be keeping an eye on in the new year: Consumer-Contributed Data Takes Center Stage Momentum is high in the consumer-contributed data space: consumers are getting more comfortable with sharing their data, provided they are presented with clear benefits for doing so.  Mandates, such as the Revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2), are ushering in the era of Open Banking around the globe.  Additionally, developments, such as the recent launch of the Financial Data Exchange (FDX), point to increasing collaboration between financial institutions and data aggregation vendors (such as Finicity, Plaid, Quovo, and Envestnet | Yodlee) to facilitate secure and efficient transfer of consumer-permissioned financial data. In 2019, enhanced credit underwriting via digitally contributed-consumer data will hit the mainstream.  With... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Exploring New Frontiers in Credit Risk Scoring at Money 20/20

Money 2020
Oct112018

One of the most exciting events in the financial services industry is coming in October – Money 20/20, Oct. 21-24th in Las Vegas. Industry leaders and innovators in the Payments, FinTech and Financial Services will be at the event to discuss the ways the industry is revolutionizing the future of money. As a leader in analytics and credit scoring, FICO will be there to showcase thought leadership and new innovations in credit scoring, fraud, originations, and more. FICO CEO Will Lansing will also be speaking during two keynote sessions at the event, including a panel around the power of consumer-controlled data to broaden financial inclusion. Join us at the two can’t miss keynote sessions below on Wednesday, October 24th: October 24 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific: Wake up with the CEO The buck stops with the CEO, so when it comes to understanding the road ahead it is vital to understand... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Examining the Credit Cycle: Is This as Good as it Gets?

Credit-Cycle-Abstract-Featured-Image
Apr132017

More than 70 straight months of US job growth, the official unemployment rate down below 5%, and average hourly earnings growing at a seven-year high of 2.9%. Signs of approaching full employment finally allowed the Fed to see enough stability to inch up rates without being seemingly blown off course by events elsewhere. There will be more rate hikes to come if the economy stays on this course, and in the event the deficits grow, it will pretty much guarantee what we already expect on the interest rate front. With all this in mind, it’s a good time to ask: Has the US credit cycle reached the top? Is it as good as it gets? Of course, we never know that for sure. This is all opinion (some would say speculation), especially on the economic policy front. But you have to feel that if it isn’t the top we are... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Millennials and Credit: Are We Missing the Real Story?

Millenials and Credit - I'm a Millennial Nametag
Apr042017

Our fascination with millennials and their like or dislike of credit continues to occupy its fair share of column inches – so much so that a while back I decided to take a look for myself. I shared results of that study in a prior blog post, where I revealed that millennial credit habits don’t look too different, at least directionally, from the rest of the population. Here’s what I found: Compared with 10 years ago, today’s 18-24 year olds have lower credit and store card balances, and while they have more auto loans, the value of these loans did not grow as much as inflation would suggest. By contrast, growth in student loan debts outpaced inflation, being both greater in number as well as balances; this undoubtedly creates a drag on capacity for other forms of consumer credit. Subsequently, I also looked at the 25-34 year age band, and... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead? Part 2

Auto Lending Credit Trends #2
Feb282017

In my last blog post, I shared a new FICO research study on credit trends in auto lending. One key finding highlighted that the size of auto loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. So how are consumers affording these larger loans? It’s simple: consumers are ending up with longer terms for their car loans: While five-year loans were the most popular length of terms in 2009, there has been a swing towards opening six-year loans since then. Seven-year loan terms—while still rare at ~5% of all new loans—seem to be increasing in popularity as well. This trend towards more six-year loans occurred across all FICO® Scores. This shift may signal an increase in credit risk for the industry because six-year loans have historically had higher delinquency rates. However, confirming this requires some care in our analysis. The lingering effects of the recession, average age of the... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance Auto Loan Credit Quality: Hazardous Road Conditions Ahead?

Auto Lending Credit Trends
Feb222017

The gist of recent media coverage on the state of US auto lending can be summarized by the title of a recent New York Times article: As Auto Lending Rises, So Do Delinquencies. With this concern in mind, FICO recently conducted a research study to examine the credit quality of US consumers with auto loans, as well as other significant credit trends in auto lending. Our findings tell an interesting tale: Banks have been mildly decreasing their car loan underwriting standards. Overall indebtedness for many consumers has been declining since the Great Recession. The size of car loans has been increasing faster than inflation since the recession. More consumers now have six-year auto loans instead of five-year loans, which were the previous standard. These six-year loans have higher delinquency rates, thus this shift to longer-term loans is likely to result in higher losses for US auto loans over the next... [Read More]

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Risk & Compliance FICO Research: Are Millennials Really Abandoning Credit?

Feb082017

Nothing fascinates us more in the world of demographics than what the Millennial generation think, do and how they act.  One thing for sure is that, as they vie with the Baby Boomers to be the largest demographic group here in the USA, what they do is important. And we don’t need to be statisticians to know that the Baby Boomer generation isn’t going to be getting any bigger. The question for many in financial service boils down to this: Are Millennials really abandoning us? The topic came to mind for me recently as I was asked to be part of a panel discussion on credit and the economy at an ABS East conference. Since much of what gets said about Millennials seems to be more opinion than fact, I decided to look at a few stats and see if we could cast any light on what might be happening.... [Read More]

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