FICO UK Credit Market Report August 2021: One Month from End of Furloughs, Financial Confidence Remains Strong

LONDON, 12 October 2021

Highlights

• Spend increases £23 compared to July – highest level for at least 8 years - and £40 higher than August 2019
• Percentage of payments to balance stabilised – joint highest in last 8 years
• Average balances on two missed payment accounts grew by £23 – 12 percent above August 2019
• Cash usage grew a further 6.5 percent month on month

Global analytics software provider FICO today released its analysis of UK card trends for August 2021. The summer holidays and a continued reliance on pandemic savings probably contributed to a growth in average spend on cards. But the signs of financial pressure are also evident with an increase in average balances on accounts with missed payments and growth in card usage on cards – another sign of financial stress.

Eight-year high for increasing spend on UK cards

The average spend on UK credit cards increased £23 to £711 in August 2021. This is the highest level since FICO started compiling the data eight years ago. For the third consecutive month pre-pandemic levels were exceeded, up £40 on August 2019. 

The change in consumer behaviour over the last 12 months is also illustrated in a 25 percent increase since January 2021 in average sales on credit cards.

And it seems that pandemic savings are still underpinning this spending, as the percentage of payments to balance is 28 percent higher than August 2020, and 24 percent above pre-pandemic levels in August 2019.

August also saw consumers move from paying less than the amount due (over a two-year low) to paying the amount due and full balance (over a two-year high). However, uncertainly remains as to how long the extra savings will prop up the payment rates.

Missed payment rates see month of growth

A less rosy picture is evident when examining the missed payments data. While August saw the percentage of accounts missing payments fall 4.5 percent month on month and their associated balance as a percentage of total balance drop by 5.1 percent, consumers missing two payments saw their average balance increase £27. This is 12 percent or £265 higher than August 2019.

And the longer the missed payments, the bigger the accumulated debt. Average balances on those missing three payments compared to two years ago are 19 percent or £451 higher, and for those missing four + payments are 16 percent or £429 higher.

Spending over card limit increases

The percentage of accounts going over their limit increased, perhaps in line with the rise in spend, but is still 54 percent lower than August 2019. The average amount being spent above limit fell a further £5 in the month but is 15 percent higher than two years ago.

Cash usage maintains slow grow rate, although noticeably below pre-pandemic rates

Cash use on cards is an important indicator of financial stress. August saw further month-on-month growth in consumers using cash on their credit cards at 6.5 percent. Cash as a percentage of total spend also increased compared to July 2021, although it is 9 percent lower than a year ago and 41 percent lower than August 2019. And whilst it is not anticipated that cash spend on credit cards will reach levels seen prior to the pandemic, data later in the year will show whether the contactless limit increase from £45 to £100 makes any difference to cash usage.

Looking ahead

FICO September data will show the impact of the end of the school holidays and associated back to school spend, end of furlough support applications as of 14 September, the last month of the government furlough support (second month at 60 percent), more flexible travel rules, and the last month of the extra £20 a week Universal Credit payments impacting approximately 5.9 million people (UKGov.com 08/07/21). Rising energy, fuel and food prices coinciding with Christmas could add to existing or cause financial issues for some card users.

Although lenders will be focussed on the impact on their collections processes over the coming months, those considered market leaders will be reviewing transactional data to spot customer changes in spending patterns — such as customers using their card for cash withdrawals for the first time or starting to use credit for essentials — to ensure current and future risk levels are apparent, allowing for appropriate and pre-emptive contact and treatment. The influence of the billions in extra savings will become more evident into 2022 versus the effect on those already financially struggling or on the borderline. 

These card performance figures are part of the data shared with subscribers of the FICO® Benchmark Reporting Service. The data sample comes from client reports generated by the FICO® TRIAD® Customer Manager solution in use by some 80 percent of UK card issuers. Issuers wishing to subscribe to this service can contact staceywest@fico.com.

About FICO
FICO (NYSE: FICO) powers decisions that help people and businesses around the world prosper. Founded in 1956 and based in Silicon Valley, the company is a pioneer in the use of predictive analytics and data science to improve operational decisions. FICO holds more than 200 US and foreign patents on technologies that increase profitability, customer satisfaction and growth for businesses in financial services, telecommunications, health care, retail and many other industries. Using FICO solutions, businesses in more than 120 countries do everything from protecting 2.6 billion payment cards from fraud, to helping people get credit, to ensuring that millions of airplanes and rental cars are in the right place at the right time.

Learn more at https://www.fico.com

FICO and TRIAD are registered trademarks of Fair Isaac Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.

For further comment on the FICO UK Credit Card activity contact: 

FICO UK PR Team 
Wendy Harrison/Parm Heer/Matthew Enderby 
ficoteam@harrisonsadler.com 
0208 977 9132