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July 19, 2010

Risk of Delinquencies on New Mortgages Shows Dramatic Year-over-Year Decrease

July 19, 2010

MINNEAPOLIS—July 19, 2010—FICO analysis shows that risk on new residential mortgages in the U.S. is decreasing. FICO found lower delinquency rates and better performance on new mortgages that were opened in May-June 2009 compared to new mortgages opened in May-June 2008. FICO’s findings are true across the entire FICO® Score range, with the biggest improvement coming at the high end of the score range.

For example, in the 12 months ending April 2010, approximately one out of every 484 borrowers with a FICO® Score of 740-779 became 60-days delinquent or more on a new mortgage opened in May-June 2009. In the previous year, approximately one out of every 168 borrowers in the same score range became 60-days delinquent or more on a new mortgage.

“There are many reasons why new mortgages are becoming significantly less risky,” said Tom Quinn, vice president in the FICO® Scores business unit and a member of FICO Labs -- the company’s research arm. “We’re seeing a return to stricter underwriting standards, and consumers are being more thoughtful and cautious before taking on big financial obligations. In addition, the economy seems to be more stable now than it was in 2008 and early 2009.”

FICO's analysis of mortgage risk was based on a nationwide sample of consumer credit data from a national credit reporting agency. For more information about trends in mortgage risk, contact Jeff Scott for FICO at 408-884-4017.
bankinganalyticsblog.fico.com

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