FICO® Score 10T: the Mortgage Industry’s Most Predictive Credit Score

Independent Research Confirms: FICO® Score 10T Outperforms VantageScore 4.0 Across All Mortgage Types

In mortgage lending, one question rises above the rest: which credit score is most predictive — and therefore best positioned to serve lenders, investors, and borrowers alike?
Independent research by leading actuarial firm Milliman analyzed historical credit data across multiple periods, and the result is clear: FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for mortgage lending.
Key findings:

• FICO® Score 10T outperformed VantageScore 4.0 across all types of mortgage loans, consistently demonstrating stronger default prediction
• The performance advantage was strongest in FHA lending at more than 8%, where an accurate credit assessment for first-time homebuyers and underserved borrowers can make or break a path to homeownership
• That performance advantage is growing: more recent loan vintages show the largest predictive lift for FICO® Score 10T, while VantageScore 4.0 shows signs of degradation

Built on the robust, time-tested FICO® Score blueprint, FICO® Score 10T delivers the strongest predictive performance today — and can be trusted to deliver that predictive performance as market conditions evolve so that lenders, investors, and servicers can expand responsibly and manage risk with confidence.

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*FICO® Score 10T delivers significant improvement in mortgage default rate detection and 18.8% relative K-S improvement — well above the 10%+ threshold considered rare and highly significant in credit risk modeling. See FICO Score 10T Materially Outperforms VantageScore 4.0 for full methodology.