Getting More Americans Into Homes Is the Goal. Scoring Them Better Is How We Get There.
Accurate credit scores open more doors to homeownership. Weakening credit scoring standards does not.
VantageScore's latest white paper makes a bold claim: by assigning a credit score to 33 million additional Americans, VantageScore 4.0 would generate nearly 5 million mortgage-ready borrowers and $1 trillion in origination opportunity.
The goal of putting more Americans into homes is what FICO® Scores were built for — the trusted standard in today’s $13 trillion U.S. mortgage market. The question alone has never been whether to score more people. The question is whether the scores generated on potential borrowers are predictive enough to actually help get more approved: to get them through underwriting, into a home, and into a mortgage they can affordably sustain.
The debate isn't whether to expand homeownership. It's how.
VantageScore promises 5 million more borrowers. The data doesn’t support this claim.
VantageScore claims scoring 33 million more Americans unlocks nearly 5 million mortgage-ready borrowers and $1 trillion in origination opportunity. The market data says otherwise: of nearly two million GSE mortgage originations between September 2024 and September 2025, just 1,388 did not have a Classic FICO® Score. That is 0.07% of the market.
A closer look at who these consumers are.
VantageScore describes three distinct groups within their 33 million claim. Their own research reveals why these consumers are not mortgage-seeking — and why scoring them doesn't change that.
New to credit consumers (2M): just starting to build credit (first cards, first loans). Importantly, from seeking their first access to credit, they will be eligible to be scored by FICO within six months of opening these accounts.
Credit retired consumers (24M): voluntarily stepped away from credit. The application rate for this population for any credit product is under 4%. This group is generally not seeking credit — their absence from the credit market, including the mortgage market, is a choice, not a barrier.
No tradeline consumers (7M): only negative information on file (collections, public records) with no positive payment history to offset it. No consumer in this segment scores above 570 under any scoring model, including the VantageScore model.
According to VantageScore's own data, not a single consumer in this population scores 700 or higher. Under the preliminary score mapping from the GSE implementation of VantageScore 4.0, not one clears the Classic FICO® Score equivalent of 680. This gap between the VantageScore 4.0 distribution segmentation and average credit qualification is a perfect example of how credit qualification cannot be solved by the lower credit score standards used in the VantageScore model to achieve “more scores.”
Across all three groups, the barrier isn't the absence of a score. It's the absence of credit readiness — and a different scoring model doesn't change that.
Scoring consumers on the same data with lessened standards doesn't help them get into homes affordably.
Minimum scoring criteria are not arbitrary restrictions. They exist because a score with insufficient data behind it isn't reliably predictive — and a score you can't rely on doesn't serve the borrower, the lender, or the investor.
For borrowers, the consequences are real. A less predictive score that misidentifies creditworthiness doesn't just affect who gets approved — it affects the terms they're offered. Borrowers who are more creditworthy than their score suggests they are would pay more than they should.
For lenders, loans approved on the basis of an inaccurate assessment carry more risk than anticipated, resulting in higher losses. And that uncertainty doesn't stay with the lender. When loans reach the secondary market carrying scores investors can't fully trust, credit becomes harder to get and more expensive — for the very borrowers the expansion was meant to help.
The data isn't the difference. The model is. A better-built model means more qualified borrowers approved, more accurate pricing, and loans that perform.
FICO® Score 10T and VantageScore 4.0 have access to the exact same credit bureau sources and can incorporate the exact same trended credit data. The performance gap is how that data is used when the model is built, and that’s what separates a score you can trust from one you can't.
The answer is clear. Independent analysis by actuarial firm Milliman of GSE historical loan data found FICO® Score 10T outperformed VantageScore 4.0 in predictive accuracy — with the gap most pronounced for first-time homebuyers, where FICO® Score 10T delivers more than 10% greater predictive lift.
FICO® Score 10T achieves this without the mortgage-specific variables that disadvantage first-time homebuyers — incorporating trended credit data and rental payment history that reflects how these borrowers actually manage their finances. FICO® Score 10T scores them better.
And that advantage is not limited to who gets approved. It affects what they pay. FICO analyzed the 4.7 million first-time homebuyer loans in the GSE historical dataset and found that 33% of first-time homebuyers shift to a worse pricing tier under VantageScore 4.0 — meaning VantageScore 4.0 results in higher rates, and higher monthly payments. Further, there is a “minus 20-point score adjustment” being utilized in the GSE proof-of-concept pilot of VantageScore 4.0, to account for differences in the calibration of the models in terms of default risk at a given score. With the “minus 20-point score adjustment” applied, nearly two thirds (63%) of first-time homebuyers would be placed in a worse pricing tier under VantageScore 4.0.
Accuracy determines not just whether someone gets a mortgage — it determines what they pay for it.
A more predictive score means more responsible approvals, at lower interest rates, for the consumers who matter most to the mission of expanding homeownership.
Getting more Americans into homes is the goal. Scoring them better is how we get there.
For every borrower, the most accurate credit score is also the most valuable one — not just for getting approved, but for getting approved at the terms they deserve. FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive score for mortgage lending, outperforming VantageScore 4.0 across mortgage types, time periods, and every predictive measure tested. That predictive accuracy translates directly to more approvals, better rates for consumers, and loans that borrowers can sustain.
For first-time homebuyers, that accuracy is the difference between getting into a home and being priced out of one.
Lowering the scoring bar does not raise the homeownership rate. It raises the cost of credit for borrowers, the risk of loss for lenders, and the uncertainty for investors. A score that more accurately reflects creditworthiness opens more doors — and keeps more borrowers in the homes they worked to get into.
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