Delivering What Customers Asked for in FICO® Score 9
What a year this is shaking out to be. We recently completed the FICO® Score 9 development at all three Consumer Reporting Agencies (CRAs) and are now working with them to make the…
What a year this is shaking out to be. We recently completed the FICO® Score 9 development at all three Consumer Reporting Agencies (CRAs) and are now working with them to make these models generally available. Now that the scores have been launched, I wanted to take a moment to summarize some of the key benefits you will see.
The Voice of Customer sessions we held with our clients helped define our research focus and development objectives for FICO® Score 9. Over the several years, we’ve been researching and developing various features of the new score. Here’s a summary of some of the key features of FICO® Score 9.
- Refreshed – FICO® Scores are redeveloped periodically to account for a changing credit landscape and to incorporate advancements in predictive modeling. Much has happened since FICO® 8 was released - between the mortgage crisis and the ensuing recession, the credit landscape has changed considerably and only recently have things stabilized. While our scores are robust and proven to withstand the economic storm, the time was ripe to develop a new FICO® Score built on data that reflects the most recent economic conditions and the new normal that we operate in.
- Enhanced Treatment of Collections – With every FICO® Score development we always challenge ourselves to see if there’s a better way to evaluate credit information. With FICO® Score 9, we made two major changes to how we assess collection agency accounts: FICO® Score 9 will ignore all paid collections and FICO® Score 9 will assess medical collections separately from non-medical collections. There’s a lot of juicy stuff here so a deeper dive for this feature will be addressed in a future blog.
- Effective Risk Prediction Across All Industries – More organizations are relying on a single score throughout their enterprise so that all lines of business can operate with a ‘lingua franca’ of risk. As a modeler, this creates a daunting challenge for us as we need to build a score that is going to provide value across all major product lines and for both account management and originations. Necessity is the mother of invention and as a result, a new Multi-Faceted Modeling approach was developed for this version of the FICO® Score. There’s a really great story on this feature so stay tuned to learn more about it in an upcoming post.
- Ease of Adoption – Building FICO® Scores for 25 years, we received invaluable feedback from clients with every new release. That makes us mindful of the changes and enhancements we make. Because substantial score distribution shifts can represent implementation hurdles for lenders, we don’t engineer change for the sake of change and only ‘necessary’ shifts are incorporated based on enhancements that provide value. While our primary objective is to make the scores as predictive as possible, another key objective is to minimize implementation and adoption hurdles. So in addition to minimizing unnecessary shifts in the score distribution, we’re honoring our clients’ desire to keep the score range and reason codes the same.
- More Predictive Assessment of Thin Files – As lenders refocus efforts on safely growing their portfolios there is a renewed interest in consumers with a limited credit history. FICO® Score 9 will be more predictive at evaluating so called ‘thin files’, or files with limited credit histories.
- Consistency – We’ve learned that score differences across the bureaus are primarily driven by variations in the data at each bureau. However, our clients expressed a desire for the scores to be made as consistent as possible while still leveraging the unique data at each bureau. To facilitate a greater degree of consistency across the three US credit reporting agencies, for the first time FICO® Score 9 was developed using the same October 2011 to October 2013 timeframe.
- Model Governance and Support for Regulatory Compliance – The regulatory climate today is very different from when FICO® Score 8 was developed. Though FICO® has always helped our clients with these efforts, we understand that a greater degree of transparency is required from score vendors. To that end, we have enhanced our documentation to ease the burden associated with model risk management and regulatory compliance responsibilities.
Over the years, we have learned a lot from the conversations with our clients and our successes raise the bar higher and higher with each subsequent generation of the score. Because of the strength and robustness of our earlier scores, the challenge to leapfrog our existing scores is considerable. I believe we have cleared that very high bar and I’m really excited about the upcoming launch of the next FICO® Score. The time is right for a new score in this new economy and I look forward to talking more about some of the specific features of FICO® Score 9 in future posts.
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FICO® Score High Achievers: Is Age the Only Factor?
<p>FICO’s latest research on <a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/us-credit-quality-rising-the-beat-goes-on/" target="_blank">national FICO® Score distribution</a> shows that US credit quality continues to trend upwards, with an increasing number of consumers scoring in the highest scores ranges. Given that, we decided it was time to refresh our study on “<a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/infographic-what-does-a-high-credit-scorer-look-like/" target="_blank">FICO® Score high achievers</a>,” where we examine the credit behavioural profiles of consumers with higher credit scores.</p> <p>As expected, our latest study showed that older people generally have higher scores, as has been the case in our <a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/risk-compliance/age-before-beauty-credit-worthiness-before-youth/" target="_blank">past research</a>. This is largely because they have trade lines that have been open longer, which leads to higher scores (assuming the trade lines are in good standing and all other things equal). The most credit savvy among you will remember that length of credit history accounts for roughly 15% of the overall <a href="http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/WhatsInYourScore.aspx" target="_blank">FICO® Score calculation</a>.</p> <p>But for younger consumers, it isn’t too helpful to say, “just wait until you are 50 years old, and that will fix things!” Thus, I decided to dive deeper with our analysis, including looking at the credit behavioural characteristics of younger consumers with high FICO® Scores.</p> <p>In this analysis, I looked at credit characteristics for the two highest score bands, 750-799 and 800-850, which have about 16% and 23% of the population, respectively. I further broke this down by looking at the characteristics of the youngest 15% in each group, which occurs at age 29 for the 750-799 group and 43 for the 800-850. We used FICO<strong>®</strong> Score 9 for our analysis, and examined typical variables of the categories that go into the make-up of the score.</p> <p><a href="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FICO-Score-High-Achiever-table.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-29367" src="http://www.fico.com/en/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FICO-Score-High-Achiever-table.png" alt="fico-score-high-achiever-table" width="715" height="747" /></a></p> <p>Since there’s a lot to dissect in this chart, I’ll highlight a few findings that struck me: <ul> <li><strong>Credit history.</strong> Higher scores are undoubtedly associated with a longer time on file. What’s striking is the higher average time on file for the 800+ group, both overall and for revolving accounts (the most common trade line). Clearly, it helps to start credit use early in life – but that’s not the sole determining factor for high scoring. The younger cohorts in both the 800+ and 750-799 groups have time on file medians significantly less than their older counterparts.</li> <li><strong>New credit.</strong> High credit scorers do, in fact, pursue new credit. We see little variation in months since last trade line opening and last inquiry among all groups observed.</li> <li><strong>Pay on time.</strong> As you might expect, the further in the past the delinquency, the higher the score – and that’s <u>if</u> a delinquency ever happened. 95% of the 800+ people and 72% of the 750-799 group have never been delinquent, which is a striking contrast to the 57% for the total population. The percentages for the younger groups are even higher, especially so for the 750-799ers. Collection items are also scarce for these high scorers. While 23% of the national population have collection items greater than $99, the figures are only 0.5% for the 800+ group and 3% for the 750-799 group. It is clear that, in conjunction with starting a credit file early, paying on time is a key trait of the FICO® Score high achiever.</li> <li><strong>Balance and utilization.</strong> Finally, we look at how credit is being used, focusing on revolving product use. (Since most people only have one mortgage or one auto loan, variation in instalment product figures is minimal and driven by payment history, which is near perfect for high scorers, as we’ve seen.) FICO® Score high achievers tend to have more open revolving accounts. While the % active trades and utilization are generally lower, by no means do high scorers avoid the use of credit products. What drives the difference here is the amount of <u>available</u> revolving credit utilized. The 800+ group is roughly 1/4 of the national median, both in total and on their highest utilized card; they also have lower balances and more cards<em>. </em>The 750-799 group is more active and higher utilized, but still only at 2/3 of the national figures. The young 750-799 group compensate with lower revolving balances and, as a result, lower utilization, which is in line with what we see for the 800+ group.</li> <li><strong>Benchmarks.</strong> I’d like to point out that while this study provides good benchmarks of the typical credit traits of the FICO® Score high achiever, individual credit profiles will vary widely. And keep in mind that when we sort groups of consumers as a whole by different behaviours, some results may look superficially odd. For example, the 800+ band has a longer median average open account time (128 months) than average revolving months on file (140 months).</li> </ul> So, what do we conclude? A huge takeaway is that high scorers don’t have too much in the way of serious delinquencies and negative public record data.</p> <p>In most respects, the young 800+ people are like their peer group. They really only differ markedly in their shorter credit history and higher non-mortgage balance, both of which are a function of life stage. Our results show that you don’t have to be a credit product hermit; these high scorers have more credit cards. The takeaway is to start credit activity early and maintain well-managed and moderate usage.</p> <p>In many ways, the young 750-799 people are more interesting because their age profile is much younger. Their credit characteristics differ more from their peer group, particularly in terms of length of credit history. They compensate by having almost pristine credit records and lower balances.</p> <p>Ultimately, 39% of US consumers are FICO® Score high achievers, which they accomplish by following common-sense credit practices. It ain’t rocket science!</p>
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